Ebe kachasị ọhụrụ na Transformers Global Medium and High Voltage (2025-2026)

1. Mmelite nke Ụkpụrụ arụmọrụ ike na mgbanwe akwụkwọ ndụ akwụkwọ ndụ: Mgbanwe ike ọhụrụ dịka isi ihe

N'ụwa niile, ihe achọrọ maka arụmọrụ ike nke etiti na Transformer Voltaji Dị Elus na-agba ọsọ, enweghịkwa ụkpụrụ arụmọrụ ike n'akụkụ mmepụta ike ọhụrụ aghọwo isi ihe mgbu n'afọ ndị na-adịbeghị anya. Na Eprel 2024, China wepụtara ụdị ọhụrụ nke Ụkpụrụ Kachasị Mma nke A Na-ekwe Ka Ọ Dị Mma nke Ọrụ Ike na Ọkwa arụmọrụ Ike maka Transformers Ike (GB20052-2024), nke e tinyere n'ọrụ na Febụwarị 2025. Maka oge mbụ, ọkọlọtọ a gụnyere transformers 6kV-66kV maka mmepụta ike ọhụrụ (fotovoltaic, ike ikuku, nchekwa ike) n'ime iwu arụmọrụ ike dị mkpa, na-ekpuchi ọnọdụ voltaji bụ isi maka njikọ grid ike ọhụrụ (dịka ọmụmaatụ, transformers 35kV nke e mikpuru mmanụ/ụdị akọrọ na-akpata ihe karịrị 95% nke ngwa na ngalaba ike ọhụrụ).

Isi ihe mgbaru ọsọ nke nkwalite ọkọlọtọ bụ ibelata mfu nnyefe site na ike ọhụrụ. Site na iji transformers 35kV nke e tinyere mmanụ n'ime ihe dịka ọmụmaatụ, mfu nke arụmọrụ ike nke ọkwa 3 n'okpuru ọkọlọtọ ọhụrụ ebelatala site na 30% ma e jiri ya tụnyere nke ochie (GB6451-2015), arụmọrụ ike nke ọkwa 1 ebelatala site na 10% ọzọ; mfu nke transformers 35kV nke ụdị akọrọ (Ọkwa 3) ebelatala site na 20% ma e jiri ya tụnyere ọkọlọtọ ụlọ ọrụ (NB/T31062-2014). Dịka atụmatụ si kwuo, ọ bụrụ na emelite transformers ike ọhụrụ niile na China site na ọkwa S11 gaa na ọkwa S20, enwere ike ibelata mfu carbon site na tọn nde 55, nke hà nhata okpukpu 2.8 nke mmepụta ike nke Gezhouba Hydropower Station na 2021.

Mmejuputa iwu a abụghị naanị na ọ na-akwalite mgbanwe nke ụlọ ọrụ transformer China gaa na arụmọrụ dị elu na obere carbon, kamakwa ọ na-enyekwa usoro ntụaka dị mkpa maka njikọ grid ike ọhụrụ zuru ụwa ọnụ.

1. Ọchịchọ Smart Grid na AI: Ndị Mgbanwe Steeti Solid-State (SSTs) Bụrụ Isi Ọgbọ Na-esote

Site na mgbawa nke ike kọmputa AI (dịka ọmụmaatụ, ọzụzụ ChatGPT ụdị buru ibu na-eri ọkụ eletrik n'ime ụbọchị atọ dịka ụgbọ ala Tesla 3,000 na-anya kilomita 320,000) na mmụba nke owuwu grid smart, transformers ọdịnala enweghịzi ike imezu ihe achọrọ nke njupụta ike dị elu na iwu siri ike. Transformers siri ike (SSTs), yana uru ha dị ka obere nha, arụmọrụ dị elu, na nkwado maka usoro ike bidirectional, aghọọla ihe a na-elekwasị anya na nyocha teknụzụ na nlebara anya ahịa n'oge na-adịbeghị anya.

SST na-eji teknụzụ mgbanwe eletrọniki ike ugboro ugboro. Ma e jiri ya tụnyere transformers ugboro ugboro nke ụlọ ọrụ ọdịnala, ha na-ebelata olu site na 50%-80% na ibu site na 60%-80%, ma nwee ike iru nhazi voltaji na-agbanwe agbanwe nke millisecond na mmepụta voltaji na-adịgide adịgide, na-eme ka ha dabara adaba maka ọnọdụ dịka ebe data AI, njikọ grid ike ọhụrụ, na ọdụ chaja ngwa ngwa. Dịka ọmụmaatụ, akwụkwọ ọcha kachasị ọhụrụ nke NVIDIA depụtara SSTs dị ka ngwọta kachasị mma maka ọkọnọ voltaji etiti na ebe data, ụlọ ọrụ dịka Jinpan Technology emechaala mmepe ihe atụ SST ma ziga ihe nlele na NVIDIA.

Ọ bụ ezie na SST ka nọ n'ọkwa nkwenye nke ihe nlereanya/obere ogbe (a na-atụ anya na a ga-ere ahịa ya n'ọtụtụ buru ibu site na 2028 ruo 2030), atụmanya ahịa dị elu - akụkọ nyocha nke Guangda Securities na-egosi na a na-atụ anya na SST ga-aghọ ihe ọhụrụ na nsogbu ike nke wiil abụọ nke "AI + ike ọhụrụ" na-akwalite, ebe nha ahịa na-eto site na ijeri yuan 6 na 2024 ruo ijeri yuan 26.4 na 2027 (CAGR nke ihe dị ka 64%).

1. Ụkọ ọkọnọ zuru ụwa ọnụ na uru ndị China: Njikwa nọọrọ onwe ya nke ụlọ ọrụ zuru oke na-aghọ asọmpi bụ isi

N'ụwa niile, transformers etiti na elu voltaji na-eche oke ụkọ ọkọnọ ihu: oghere ọkọnọ maka transformers ike na United States amụbaala site na 116% ma e jiri ya tụnyere 2019, mmelite grid nke Europe na-aga n'ihu nwayọ nwayọ n'ihi enweghị transformer, nnukwu ọrụ anyanwụ na India anaghị arụ ọrụ mgbe ha na-eche transformers. N'ọnọdụ a, China, nke nwere 60% nke ikike mmepụta zuru ụwa ọnụ, abụrụla onye kacha erite uru.

Uru dị mkpa nke China nwere na transformers dị na njikwa onwe onye nke ụlọ ọrụ zuru oke:

Ihe Ndị Dị Mkpa: E ji ígwè silicon (ihe "obi" nke transformers) mepụta ruru tọn nde 3.0325 (2024), nke karịrị nke Japan ugboro ise na nke United States ugboro asatọ. Baosteel Group arụọla naanị usoro mmepụta ígwè silicon nke dị 0.18mm dị oke mkpa n'ụwa, nke nwere arụmọrụ kacha elu n'ụwa;

Teknụzụ na Ike: China Electrical Equipment Group ejikọtala ụlọ ọrụ dịka XD, Baobian, na Shandong Electrical Engineering iji mepụta oke ikike "UHV + ike ọhụrụ". Ụlọ ọrụ nkeonwe dịka Xinjiang Tebian na Jiangsu Huapeng na-edu ụwa na mbupụ transformer ike ọhụrụ;

Ọrụ Nnyefe: Usoro nnyefe transformer nke China (dịka ọmụmaatụ, ọnwa iri maka transformers UHV buru ibu) dị mkpụmkpụ karịa nke Europe na United States (ihe karịrị ọnwa 18), ọnụ ahịa ya dịkwa ala (ngwaahịa ndị nwere otu nkọwapụta bụ ọkara ọnụahịa nke ndị Europe na America).

Site na Jenụwarị ruo Ọgọst 2025, uru mbupụ transformer nke China ruru ijeri yuan 29.711, mmụba kwa afọ nke 36.3%, ebe ahịa Yurop na-arị elu site na 138%. Ụfọdụ ndị ahịa dị njikere ịkwụ ụgwọ 20% iji hụ na ọkọnọ ahụ dị.

1. Mmepe Teknụzụ na Mmelite Ụlọ Ọrụ: UHV na Ike Ifufe Dị n'Oké Osimiri Dị Ka Isi Ihe

N'oge na-adịbeghị anya, ụlọ ọrụ China enwetala nnukwu ọganihu teknụzụ na UHV na ike ikuku dị n'ụsọ oké osimiri, yana mpaghara transformer ọkara na elu voltaji dị elu, na-akwalite nkwalite ụlọ ọrụ mmepụta ihe:

Transformers UHV: Transformer nke ụlọ ọrụ Shenbian nke ±800kV UHV DC nke etinyere na ọrụ Jinshang-Hubei UHV na-eme ka ọkwa mkpuchi akụkụ netwọk dịkwuo mma site na 5%; transformer jenerato 1000kV UHV nke Xidian Xibian na-eme ka ọrụ ike nde kilowatt nke coal rụọ ọrụ n'oge;

Transformers nke Ike Ifufe n'ụsọ oké osimiri: Ụlọ ọrụ Shenbian wepụtara transformer nacelle nke ike ikuku dị n'ụsọ oké osimiri nke mbụ n'ụwa nke nwere ike 20Hz, nke a haziri ka ọ dabara na grid ndị na-agbanwe agbanwe, na-ebelata mfu nnyefe site na 15%-20%, ma tinye ya na ugbo ikuku nke Huaene Yuhuan Phase II nke dị n'ụsọ oké osimiri;

Ndị Na-agbanwe Ihe nke Ọma: Ụlọ ọrụ Shandong Electrical Engineering Equipment mepụtara obere transformer nke nwere ike ịgbagharị atọ nke nwere ike 220kV, nke na-ebelata ojiji ígwè site na nhazi nhazi (dịka ọmụmaatụ, nhazi nke efere tankị) ma na-eme ka arụmọrụ mgbakọ ahụ ka mma site na 35%, yana ọkwa arụmọrụ ike gafere ọkọlọtọ mba.

1. Akụnụba Gburugburu na Mmegharị Ihe: Ụzọ Ọhụrụ Maka Mgbanwe Akwụkwọ Ndụ

Site na ọganihu nke atụmatụ "dual carbon", nrụpụta mgbanwe transformer aghọọla ebe ọhụrụ a na-ahụkarị n'ụlọ ọrụ ahụ. TBEA (Hunan) Energy Construction Co., Ltd. na-eji "njikwa dijitalụ" (chips sensọ ọgụgụ isi) na "mmeghari akụkụ ahụ" (mmeghari mkpuchi coil, mkpuchi miri emi mmanụ) iji gbanwee transformers 220kV nke a kwụsịrị ịrụ ọrụ ka ọ bụrụ akụrụngwa nwere ike ịrụ ọrụ nke ọma karịa ọkọlọtọ ọkwa 1 nke mba. Ọnụ ego ya bụ naanị 60% nke ngwaahịa ọhụrụ, otu unit emegharịrị nwere ike ịchekwa 70% nke ọnụ ahịa ịzụrụ ihe ma weghachite oge owuwu bara uru.

Ihe nlereanya a abụghị naanị na ọ na-ebelata ọnụ ahịa nke imelite grid kamakwa ọ na-ebelata mmefu akụrụngwa - dịka atụmatụ si dị, mbelata ikuku carbon site na ebe a na-emepụta ihe yiri ịkụ ọtụtụ puku eka nke oke ọhịa, na-agbaso ntụziaka mmepe nke "akụnụba gburugburu."